On June 26, US President Trump and Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the trade deal with China had been signed, according to multiple reports—one Chinese source cited that officials from China’s trade team are reviewing the deal.
“The tariff program is in the power of the presidency,” said Lutnick to one Bloomberg reporter who asked if the tariff program was dependent on the “Big Beautiful Bill” passing Senate inspection. So, tax cuts may not be reliant on assumed tariff revenues ($88 billion thus far, and $30 billion per month) moving forward, according to Lutnick. Previously, it was thought that tariff revenues could replace the Federal Income Tax.
“We’re going to announce a whole bunch of deals over the next week or so,” finished Lutnick whose team will send letters to trading partners and provide framework for deals by July 9. This interview made the July 9 deadline seem “critical” despite sentiment from US Press Secretary Leavitt. However, negotiations with trading partners can continue once tariff rates are reassigned on July 9, said Lutnick.
However, the US-China trade structure has not been revealed since the tariff pause on May 14 and since leaders from each side met in Geneva, Switzerland. In two weeks, trade officials from the US and China will meet again, according to US Treasury Secretary Bessent.
“The ball is in China’s court,” said Bessent in a podcast interview where he referenced the strategic decoupling of US-China trade along with sector-specific shakeups that the US trade team has dealt. A US-China trade deal would largely focus on non-tariff measures as the US trade official still questions whether China will open markets for US products.
And it's not just trade between the US and China that is strained, according to an article on Expana cites the stoppage of fertilizer exports from China to India.
In May, the US trade deficit widened, cited Expana in an article that referred to increased US imports of products before possible tariff hikes, and decreased US exports. Also from May, US core inflation is up 2.7% year-over-year, versus the 2.6% expected.
The US trade team continues to hold a 10% baseline tariff, 50% on steel and aluminum, as well as 25% on imported automobiles. Additionally, US officials are still mulling more industry-specific tariffs on pharmaceuticals, for example.
