According to Russian Gazette, the Russian government's official publication, Russia is on track to achieve self-sufficiency in lysine in 2025 and, together with Belarus, is looking to establish exports of feed-grade amino acids to foreign markets in the CIS region, Asia and Africa, said Vadim Petrov, State Secretary of the Ecological Chamber of Russia.
However, market players remain skeptical about the export opportunities in this segment.
"As of today, bringing up the topic of Russian feed amino acids exports looks premature," Sergey Mikhnyuk, executive director of the Russian National Feed Union, commented.
He said that feed additive exports are unlikely to be on Russia or Belarus's agenda in the next five years.
A source close to the Belarussian feed additive manufacturer BNBC said that the company's declared targets of claiming 20% of the European feed additive market and establishing sales to Asia and Africa at the start of the project are clearly no longer relevant. The prospects of capacity expansion with the construction of the second stage look vague as the European market remains closed and the cost of delivering products to customers in Asia questions the rationale behind such a trade, the source said.
According to Mikhnyuk, 80% of BNBC’s production is sold on the Russian market, and the rest is used to meet domestic demand. He added that there is no clarity on when BNBC will kick off the second stage of its project and whether it will focus on feed-grade vitamins or amino acids.
However, geopolitical changes could make a huge difference for the Russian feed additive industry. In the event of a new trade war with China under the Trump administration, the US and EU could start boycotting Chinese imports, Mikhnyuk said. The disruptions in the trade flows could push Chinese businesses to consider localizing feed additive production in Russia, he added.
However, Mikhnyuk also cautioned that such changes, even if the risk of the trade war eventually materializes, are not expected to occur in the immediate future.
