By Luís Vieira, Analyst
Brazil – the world's top chicken exporter – confirmed on 15 May its first case of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) of subtype H5N1 in wild birds in the southeastern Espirito Santo state. As the virus was detected in wild birds, the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture said bans on the international trade of Brazilian poultry products are not expected. Brazil's status "as a country free of HPAI" is also unaffected.
Sources in Brazil contacted by Feedinfo believe that the country is unlikely to see widespread cases impacting commercial flocks.
Poultry Impact
“The probability [of having flu cases in commercial flocks] is very low because the first cases were detected in a marine environment and far away from any commercial areas. Besides, very few birds were affected at this time, and few outbreaks were identified. Biosecurity measures are in place precisely to face challenges like this,” explained Luizinho Caron, a researcher at the Swine & Poultry division at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa).
Caron said that the next measures taken by Brazilian authorities and producers would be to increase professional surveillance for suspected H5N1 cases. The country has also banned the transport of animals to agricultural fairs and the trade of live birds.
In the meantime, Miguel Gularte, CEO of meat processor BRF SA, told Reuters that the government and companies have taken precautions to keep the highly contagious virus out of commercial farms.
The Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA) has launched a new website to advise producers regarding prevention and concrete measures to follow if a case is detected. In addition, the association stated that producers in the state of Espírito Santo, where the first case was detected, are mobilised to monitor the situation and prevent new cases.
“There is absolutely no change in Brazil’s domestic poultry supply,” reads an official ABPA statement.
Urner Barry View
Urner Barry Poultry Market Reporter Dylan Hughes acknowledged that the case is unlikely to impact global trade or production but has sparked some industry concern for those involved with chicken production and sales.
“As of now, the HPAI cases in Brazil were both detected in wild birds and therefore don’t appear likely to impact global trade or commercial bird production. That being said, this news has undoubtedly reignited some cause for concern among poultry market participants,” Huges said. “With migratory bird season upon us, overhead flyway traffic has become increasingly more active, thus increasing the potential for further virus transmission between wild and commercial flocks. Additionally, as we’ve seen in the United States and Europe over the past year, warmer weather conditions don’t appear to be playing quite as effective of a role in limiting the viability and transmissibility of the virus as what some players would have hoped for.”
“HPAI is very much an ongoing global challenge that has yet to abate. Although the potential benefits of vaccines within commercial flocks are being investigated, it appears that any wide-scale rollout of a vaccination program is still a ways off,” Hughes added.
As far as any impact on demand for feed additives is concerned, buyers tell Feedinfo they have not made any plans to reduce or increase purchases but are following the event closely.
Animal Feed
Ariovaldo Zani, president of Sindirações, an association representing the feed sector, said it does not think the country would face any trade sanctions with these wild cases, as confirmed by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH).
“Brazil is going to have the same treatment as the United States when it had its wild cases. It will not suffer any trade sanctions,” argued Zani.
Feed Additives
Luis Eduardo Pimenta, a senior procurement professional at premix company Agroceres Multimix, said that the wild bird flu cases have not impacted the feed additives market. “We will watch and follow closely.”
In general, buyers in the feed and feed additive markets have covered shorter during 2023 due to improved supply chain timing and costs, as well as extreme price volatility on products originating from China and Europe.
For example, a meatpacker in Brazil recently said it was looking for shorter delivery timeframes or spot deals on feed additives after paying high prices for methionine earlier in the year. The buyer said it last paid $2.60/kg FOB Santos, but by the time the product arrived, it was worth much less. Methionine, a critical additive in the poultry sector, was assessed starting at $2.10/kg on 18 May by Feedinfo.
