By Heather McGuire Doyle, Senior Market Reporter (North America)
US feed demand is being quietly but significantly reshaped—not just by grain markets or weather, but by evolving genetics, trade shifts, disease outbreaks, and even consumer taste. That was the message from Brian Earnest, Lead Economist of Animal Protein at CoBank, during his in-depth 2025 Animal Economics Outlook presented at the AFIA-PISC conference in Orlando this week.
“The consumer is still asking for more out of this space,” Earnest said, “and likely that leads to an increase in production—not just in animal units, but in overall live weights.”
Here’s how the animal protein sector’s biggest shifts are influencing feed buyers, sellers, and ingredient suppliers across the country.
Beef-on-dairy trend introduces new feed patterns
With the US cattle inventory at its lowest in 64 years, feed demand for traditional cow-calf operations remains tight. But there’s a new player in town: the beef-on-dairy calf.
Beef on dairy crossing involves producing a more sustainable calf by using beef semen in a herd of dairy cows for breeding. The benefit of using dairy cows for meat is that they produce better quality beef (factors such as bone-to-muscle ratio and organ quality), according to Colorado State University.
Dairy producers are increasingly breeding beef genetics into their herds, and these calves are heading to feedlots, often with better feed efficiency than expected.
“These offspring are making their way to feedlots and performing quite well,” Earnest said. “…It brings flexibility in terms of feeding regimens to a segment of the beef space that hasn’t necessarily had that before.”
This shift may not replace traditional cattle numbers, but it adds meaningful pounds, increasing overall feed tonnage demand—especially near large dairy regions, Earnest explained.
Broiler expansion could tighten corn and soy supply
While the beef herd contracts, the broiler sector is gearing up. After several years of breeder-side challenges, recent improvements are paying off.
“Hatchery output is up about 4% over the last five weeks,” Earnest noted, referencing early 2025 USDA figures. “That’s encouraging for what we’re going to see in production come Q2 and Q3.”
The math is simple: more chicks, heavier live weights, more feed. With 60% of the ration broiler feed made up of corn and roughly 30% soybean meal, feed ingredient demand is poised to climb heading into summer, he explained.
Cattle contraction keeps feed demand downstream
The US cow-calf sector is unlikely to bounce back in the near term. Economic constraints, aging ranchers (average age: 58), and persistent drought are all weighing on expansion plans.
“The beef cow inventory is the lowest since 1961, just under 28 million head,” Earnest emphasized. “We’re not quite to a point where we’re going to see a rebound—and even when we do, we’re likely not going back to previous peaks.”
Mexico emerges as critical trade and feed ally
The US feed and protein sectors are increasingly tied to Mexico, both as a market and supplier.
“Seventy percent of US turkey meat that is exported ends up in Mexico,” Earnest said. “Not only that, but it’s primarily dark meat.”
Meanwhile, Mexico also serves as a top source of cattle imports into the US further integrating North American protein and feed economies.
As nearshoring drives middle-class growth in Mexico, demand for protein—and the feed needed to produce it—could rise steadily. For ingredient exporters, this creates an opportunity.
HPAI hits egg layer flocks—and soy demand
The resurgence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in early 2025 has led to a dramatic loss in table-egg layers, especially in regions like California.
“We’ve already had more depopulations in 2025 than in all of 2023,” Earnest said.
This sudden drop in egg-laying flocks directly affects soybean meal demand, especially in the layer-heavy Western part of the US. While not yet reflected in national feed consumption, the regional impacts may be sharp.
Consumer still chooses protein—but they want more
Despite inflationary pressures, consumers continue to prioritize animal protein—especially beef and chicken—thanks to rising product quality.
“Consumers care most about taste, freshness, price, and nutrition,” Earnest said, citing Kansas State’s Meat Demand Monitor. “Environmental impact is at the bottom of the list—not because it’s not important, but because they assume the producer is doing their part.”
This creates opportunity for feed providers to differentiate via quality-enhancing additives, nutritional upgrades, and specialty feeds—as long as those align with cost and performance.
Rise of direct-to-consumer meat boosts specialty feed
Small but growing, the direct-to-consumer meat movement—think subscription boxes and on-farm freezers—is shaping demand for specialty production systems.
“That segment is kind of capturing or adding to sales as much as it is overall consumption,” Earnest said. “There’s more and more of these programs where you buy an eighth or a quarter of a beef or even split a full.”
While the overall volume is still small, many of these producers seek non-GMO, organic, or natural feed ingredients, often purchasing in bulk from local mills. For ingredient sellers, this niche is increasingly worth watching.
Bottom line: know your segment, know your demand
For feed and ingredient professionals, the message is clear: the animal protein sector is not monolithic. Between beef-on-dairy, broiler expansion, international trade, and shifting consumer behavior, demand is fragmented but strong.
“We’re likely to see some moderate output change in terms of animal protein overall,” Earnest concluded. “But the consumer is still asking for more out of this space.”
And where the protein goes, feed will follow, Earnest explained.
