The ongoing anti-dumping investigation into Chinese lysine imports by Brazil, along with the existing EU and US duties, has raised concerns about the potential indirect impact on Russian feed additive imports, according to local sources.
Chinese feed additive manufacturers are likely to scale down lysine production in response to the anti-dumping duties imposed on their key sales markets, the Russian National Feed Union has warned.
"All countries try to protect their own [feed additive] manufacturers," Sergey Mikhnyuk, executive director of the National Feed Union, commented.
China accounts for 72% of Russia’s lysine HCl imports, Feedlot, a Moscow-based think tank, estimated. In 2024, Russian lysine HCl purchases were expected to inch up compared with the previous year to 29,500 tonnes. However, last year, China accounted for just under 8% of lysine sulfate imports to Russia. In H1 2024 alone, Russian lysine sulfate imports grew by 250% year-on-year. This can be explained by large additional supplies from the Belarussian National Biotechnological Corporation (BNBC).
According to Expana's Feed Additives Supply & Demand Database, as of 2025, Russia's national lysine production capacity (lysine HCl equivalent) is 100,000 tonnes/year.
The National Feed Union expects that, in response to the anti-dumping duties, the Chinese factories will switch, where possible, to the production of other feed-grade amino acids, Mikhnyuk said.
According to Mikhnyuk, the EU investigation into valine imports is another important event for the market since Russia's feed industry is reliant on Chinese valine imports, with Feedlot estimating that 97% of valine in the local market is supplied by China.
"Price turbulence is something that usually follows situations like that," a source in the Russian feed industry commented, adding, however, that local traders expect no major swings in Russia in the coming weeks.
At the end of December, the Russian lysine market experienced a 10% rise in prices in hard currency and a 9% increase in rubles, Feedlot estimated, adding that Chinese lysine producers maintained their prices at the previous level despite waning demand.
"Despite a slight easing of tensions on the spot market, market participants report weak demand and low levels of purchasing activity, as a result of which the actual number of transactions is small," Feedlot analysts noted.
