The global rapeseed and soybean markets have been experiencing significant turbulence in recent years, primarily attributed to extreme weather conditions, a ban on EU rapeseed imports, and China's surging demand. During the Feedinfo Summit 2023 in Vienna, Marcel Goldenberg, Mintec's Chief Market Reporting Officer, provided valuable insights into the dynamics of the oilseed market.
Global Rapeseed Market Overview
Key rapeseed-producing nations/regions, including Australia, Canada, China, the EU, and India, have been grappling with a complex set of challenges. According to Mintec supply data, the EU is expected to witness an increase in rapeseed production during the harvest year of 2023/24.
Ukraine plays a crucial role in rapeseed production within the European region. The onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 led to a surge in rapeseed prices from March to May of that year. This price spike was driven by fears surrounding supply disruptions. Fortunately, rapeseed production in Ukraine remained unaffected as it is not grown within the Russian-occupied territories. Subsequently, prices experienced a sharp drop due to over-purchasing.
Despite tensions with some of its immediate EU neighbours seeking to slow the flow of Ukrainian agricultural products into their markets, imports of rapeseed from Ukraine to the EU continued to rise during the 2022/23 period. The EU's good harvest in 2022/23 led to stable-to-weak trends in rapeseed prices within the region.
Soybean Market Developments
Goldenberg also shed light on the soybean market, highlighting notable developments. In 2023/24, Brazil achieved its largest-ever soybean crop, while Argentina's soybean production surged by an impressive 97%. In contrast, the US faced a decline in soybean harvests due to extreme weather conditions.
Goldenberg expressed a bearish sentiment in the soybean market but noted that soybean meal was experiencing relatively bullish tendencies due to heightened demand from China.
Global Swine Industry
The global swine industry has witnessed shifts in volume. In 2023, the industry stock volume is expected to be lower than it was in 2013. Over the past five years, Brazil's ending stocks decreased by 12%, while the EU's stocks dropped by 8.3%. In contrast, Mexico experienced a sharp increase in domestic demand, resulting in a 17.4% rise in swine stocks over the same period. Russia also saw an 18.6% increase in swine stocks due to its self-sufficient supply strategy.
Cattle Industry Trends
The cattle industry has seen varying trends in stock levels. India, Brazil, and China have witnessed increases in cattle herd stocks over the past five years, driven by a growing middle-class population. In contrast, the US and the EU reported declines of 8.2% and 4.9% respectively in their cattle stocks during the same period.
